Spinning the Wheels – Campaign 2008: Iowa's over, rolling on to New Hampshire

ROCHESTER, N.Y. — From my seat here, sitting on my parents' couch during the last day of my visit here, the 2008 presidential landscape is shifting quickly.

"Romney's going to crash and burn," my dad, political scientist and poll watcher extraordinaire, says. "Huckabee's going to burn himself out."

Guiliani might never ignite, and McCain may surge, but I've been wrong before. Thursday night, out to dinner here before the Iowa caucuses, I predicted Barack would roll, Edwards would surprise with his experienced Iowa caucus-goers, and Hillary would fall short of expectations. All proved true.

And then there were my Republican predictions, which proved absolutely wrong. Huck, I'd said, would end the evening disappointed, his poll numbers not bearing out the surge they indicated. Of course, I was wrong.

This post is a scatter-shot of initial thoughts on the '08 campaign, and with the snowball beginning for Barack, as my dad has suggested, I'll try to keep up. Hillary is running scared, Barack is riding high, Edwards is hanging on, and Richardson is glad to still be around.

I'm disappointed Biden is gone — he had all but locked up my vote before he fizzled in Iowa, with his sincerity, intellect, and experience (which, contrary to Barack-speak, isn't always a bad thing). Whoever the Democrats' nominee is would do well to pick Biden as the veep nominee.

The Republican field is a mess, with scary prospects and no one who seems promising, and but one, John McCain, who seems tolerable. (Disclaimer: This analysis is from an unabashed, if moderate and independent-minded Democrat.)

Romney doesn't want it from the heart. My best evidence comes in a quote from Romney in this Washington Post story by my college buddy Eli Saslow. Said Romney: "I'll make my message loud and clear. Of course, to be elected president would be an enormous honor. But not to be elected would be an enormous relief."

More on the candidates in posts to come, I hope, but for now, I'll leave you faithful readers with some thoughts on the process.

The 2008 presidential campaign began earlier than any other in my memory, at least in December 2006, with Edwards announcing his candidacy from my-then city of residence, New Orleans. The New York Times has labeled the campaign "The Long Run" in a series of candidate profiles beginning in early 2007. The long primary run has been underway for more than a year, but the general election campaign is shaping up to be the longest in history as well.

If Tsunami Tuesday, Feb. 5, goes as it could, and as I think it will, strongly for one candidate in each party, we could have a presumptive nominee then, with 24 states voting that day, and the snowball carrying the big winners to the conventions. If not Feb. 5, March 4's Super Tuesday could seal the deal. In either case — nominee by Feb. 5 or March 4 — we'll have a long general election campaign, eight or nine months. I expect that long run to produce the lowest voter turnout in American history, as a result of sheer boredom and frustration with the campaigns after about mid-April.

Big Sign that the Water Crunch is Real: Three NYT Stories in Three Days

NEW YORK, Oct. 23 — In a sign that some will argue is a key indicator that the water crisis facing the United States — from Oswego, N.Y., to Atlanta, to the parched western states, The New York Times has, in the past three days, run three major stories on different aspects of the problem.

Sunday the Times Magazine had this story, "The Future Is Drying Up," on the remarkable water shortages in the west, including a striking image of Lake Mead, behind the Hoover Dam, showing the recently exposed, bleached white 100-foot high section of vertical shoreline left exposed by receding waters.

Monday, the Metro Section reported from Oswego on a three-inch drop in Lake Ontario's water level in October alone, in this story, "Inch by Inch, Great Lakes Shrink, And Cargo Carriers Face Losses."

Today, on the front page, the Times reports in "New to Being Dry, the South Struggles to Adapt" from Atlanta on the seemingly most urgent aspect of the crisis, in the southeast, where the reserves in Atlanta's main source of water, Lake Lanier, "could reach the bottom of its storage reserves in about four months." More troublesome, the state, residents, and visitors alike are only now thinking about how to address the problem.

Case in point: my girlfriend visited Atlanta this weekend. As I pondered the water issue with my mother while I was in Rochester (which, incidentally, my mom thinks is poised for a renaissance resulting from the water crisis, and which I tend to think is correct, but more on that another time), I sent my girlfriend a text message asking, "Are you thirsty yet?"

She called back confused, but she did then confirm that she'd had to ask for water at breakfast out Saturday morning, instead of it just showing up with the silverware.

The Times has a great section on its Web site cataloging its water reporting, here. Check it out, and then, ponder some ways to save some. How about this one to start: will NYC Council Member please introduce a bill that bans sidewalk spraying as a cleaning method, or at least limits the frequency?

"Seinfeld" fans may remember the idea from an episode that first aired Dec. 14, 1995, "The Gum," in which Elaine, blouse open as she walks down the sidewalk, has to tread carefully past a florist shop where the owner is hosing down the sidewalk in front. From the script:

A cop stands a little further down the street. Elaine approaches him.

ELAINE: Officer. Officer, is there some reason this man has to always be using a hose? I mean, he's flooding the sidewalk. It's a waste of water. Couldn't he just use a broom?

The cop stares at Elaine's breasts the whole time she's talking.

COP: Lady, you sold me. (strides toward florist) Hey, you with the hose.

Elaine looks confused about his attitude. She glances down, and notices her blouse wide open. She quickly pulls her coat closed, to hide her embarrassment, and hurries away.

Well, Elaine solved the problem with some cleavage, at least until later in the episode, when the hose returns, but maybe the City Council could now consider a more comprehensive approach.

What would you do to save some water?

Blogging NYT: Singing Staten Island's Praises

NEW YORK, Oct. 7 — The New York Times City section today has a huge piece on the hipster-ization of Staten Island's North Shore. The piece, here, by Cara Buckley, a metro reporter, paints a rather idyllic picture of an emerging arts and underground-music scene on the island.

There remains, however, the inescapable sense of being far away (how about 5.2 miles) from "the City," as most of my S.I. acquaintances (and many other outer borough friends) call Manhattan. Having spent 13 months of my (working) life on the Island of Staten, working to keep people moving between it and the City, I'm not sure what I think of this takeout from the piece, but I'm quoting it here because it's worth it, positively or negatively.

Perhaps the biggest hurdle between Staten Island and coolness is the most obvious and intractable one of all: the ferry. No other direct transit link with Manhattan exists, and the half-hour ferry ride cements the separateness.

“There is nothing worse than it being 4:29 a.m. and you’re in Manhattan and drunk and running for the ferry,” said Tim Duffy, a 25-year-old islander and lifelong ferry catcher. “Because if you miss that, you’re waiting till 5:30 a.m.”

Yet despite the ferry, or because of it, a thriving and tight-knit group of homegrown indie and hipster types has germinated on the North Shore.

Staten Island is a world apart from Manhattan, but it's worth a visit, or at least a ferry ride there and back. If you're on the boat, be sure to tell Capt. José that I said hi.