ROCHESTER, N.Y. — From my seat here, sitting on my parents' couch during the last day of my visit here, the 2008 presidential landscape is shifting quickly.
"Romney's going to crash and burn," my dad, political scientist and poll watcher extraordinaire, says. "Huckabee's going to burn himself out."
Guiliani might never ignite, and McCain may surge, but I've been wrong before. Thursday night, out to dinner here before the Iowa caucuses, I predicted Barack would roll, Edwards would surprise with his experienced Iowa caucus-goers, and Hillary would fall short of expectations. All proved true.
And then there were my Republican predictions, which proved absolutely wrong. Huck, I'd said, would end the evening disappointed, his poll numbers not bearing out the surge they indicated. Of course, I was wrong.
This post is a scatter-shot of initial thoughts on the '08 campaign, and with the snowball beginning for Barack, as my dad has suggested, I'll try to keep up. Hillary is running scared, Barack is riding high, Edwards is hanging on, and Richardson is glad to still be around.
I'm disappointed Biden is gone — he had all but locked up my vote before he fizzled in Iowa, with his sincerity, intellect, and experience (which, contrary to Barack-speak, isn't always a bad thing). Whoever the Democrats' nominee is would do well to pick Biden as the veep nominee.
The Republican field is a mess, with scary prospects and no one who seems promising, and but one, John McCain, who seems tolerable. (Disclaimer: This analysis is from an unabashed, if moderate and independent-minded Democrat.)
Romney doesn't want it from the heart. My best evidence comes in a quote from Romney in this Washington Post story by my college buddy Eli Saslow. Said Romney: "I'll make my message loud and clear. Of course, to be elected president would be an enormous honor. But not to be elected would be an enormous relief."
More on the candidates in posts to come, I hope, but for now, I'll leave you faithful readers with some thoughts on the process.
The 2008 presidential campaign began earlier than any other in my memory, at least in December 2006, with Edwards announcing his candidacy from my-then city of residence, New Orleans. The New York Times has labeled the campaign "The Long Run" in a series of candidate profiles beginning in early 2007. The long primary run has been underway for more than a year, but the general election campaign is shaping up to be the longest in history as well.
If Tsunami Tuesday, Feb. 5, goes as it could, and as I think it will, strongly for one candidate in each party, we could have a presumptive nominee then, with 24 states voting that day, and the snowball carrying the big winners to the conventions. If not Feb. 5, March 4's Super Tuesday could seal the deal. In either case — nominee by Feb. 5 or March 4 — we'll have a long general election campaign, eight or nine months. I expect that long run to produce the lowest voter turnout in American history, as a result of sheer boredom and frustration with the campaigns after about mid-April.
Sunday, January 06, 2008
Sunday, December 23, 2007
Big Sign that it's the end of the year
Rochester, N.Y., Dec. 23 — It's about 1:30 a.m. EST, Sunday morning, and I'm blogging. This entry will be a brief one, merely to acknowledge my dreadful lack of blogging during the past couple months and to suggest a turn around is in sight, I hope. It's been a blur of a couple months, but there's been a lot of blog-worthy news; many big signs to share and dissect, put the B.S. spin on, if you'll drift with me.
In Orange news, the Orangemen of the court beat the Cornell Big Red Saturday night, 80-64, in cool, relaxed, easy-going, and enjoyable fashion in front of 19,000-plus at the Dome.
Today, a hop down the Thruway in the other direction, Bills face the Giants in at Rich "B.S. won't call it Ralph Wilson" Stadium, 1 p.m. EST. Meaningless, more or less, after last week's loss to the Browns, but perhaps it'll be a good show, a big sign of what's to come.
As for what's to come from B.S., stay tuned.
Tuesday, November 06, 2007
Big Signs Reminds You to Vote Today
NEW YORK, Nov. 6 — It's election day, and while it's an off year and the media is already consumed with the big contest a year from now, your local elections may actually affect your day-to-day lives a lot more than the POTUS and other national elections. Think about it. Then go vote.
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Big Sign that the Water Crunch is Real: Three NYT Stories in Three Days
NEW YORK, Oct. 23 — In a sign that some will argue is a key indicator that the water crisis facing the United States — from Oswego, N.Y., to Atlanta, to the parched western states, The New York Times has, in the past three days, run three major stories on different aspects of the problem.
Sunday the Times Magazine had this story, "The Future Is Drying Up," on the remarkable water shortages in the west, including a striking image of Lake Mead, behind the Hoover Dam, showing the recently exposed, bleached white 100-foot high section of vertical shoreline left exposed by receding waters.
Monday, the Metro Section reported from Oswego on a three-inch drop in Lake Ontario's water level in October alone, in this story, "Inch by Inch, Great Lakes Shrink, And Cargo Carriers Face Losses."
Today, on the front page, the Times reports in "New to Being Dry, the South Struggles to Adapt" from Atlanta on the seemingly most urgent aspect of the crisis, in the southeast, where the reserves in Atlanta's main source of water, Lake Lanier, "could reach the bottom of its storage reserves in about four months." More troublesome, the state, residents, and visitors alike are only now thinking about how to address the problem.
Case in point: my girlfriend visited Atlanta this weekend. As I pondered the water issue with my mother while I was in Rochester (which, incidentally, my mom thinks is poised for a renaissance resulting from the water crisis, and which I tend to think is correct, but more on that another time), I sent my girlfriend a text message asking, "Are you thirsty yet?"
She called back confused, but she did then confirm that she'd had to ask for water at breakfast out Saturday morning, instead of it just showing up with the silverware.
The Times has a great section on its Web site cataloging its water reporting, here. Check it out, and then, ponder some ways to save some. How about this one to start: will NYC Council Member please introduce a bill that bans sidewalk spraying as a cleaning method, or at least limits the frequency?
"Seinfeld" fans may remember the idea from an episode that first aired Dec. 14, 1995, "The Gum," in which Elaine, blouse open as she walks down the sidewalk, has to tread carefully past a florist shop where the owner is hosing down the sidewalk in front. From the script:
Well, Elaine solved the problem with some cleavage, at least until later in the episode, when the hose returns, but maybe the City Council could now consider a more comprehensive approach.
What would you do to save some water?
Sunday the Times Magazine had this story, "The Future Is Drying Up," on the remarkable water shortages in the west, including a striking image of Lake Mead, behind the Hoover Dam, showing the recently exposed, bleached white 100-foot high section of vertical shoreline left exposed by receding waters.
Monday, the Metro Section reported from Oswego on a three-inch drop in Lake Ontario's water level in October alone, in this story, "Inch by Inch, Great Lakes Shrink, And Cargo Carriers Face Losses."
Today, on the front page, the Times reports in "New to Being Dry, the South Struggles to Adapt" from Atlanta on the seemingly most urgent aspect of the crisis, in the southeast, where the reserves in Atlanta's main source of water, Lake Lanier, "could reach the bottom of its storage reserves in about four months." More troublesome, the state, residents, and visitors alike are only now thinking about how to address the problem.
Case in point: my girlfriend visited Atlanta this weekend. As I pondered the water issue with my mother while I was in Rochester (which, incidentally, my mom thinks is poised for a renaissance resulting from the water crisis, and which I tend to think is correct, but more on that another time), I sent my girlfriend a text message asking, "Are you thirsty yet?"
She called back confused, but she did then confirm that she'd had to ask for water at breakfast out Saturday morning, instead of it just showing up with the silverware.
The Times has a great section on its Web site cataloging its water reporting, here. Check it out, and then, ponder some ways to save some. How about this one to start: will NYC Council Member please introduce a bill that bans sidewalk spraying as a cleaning method, or at least limits the frequency?
"Seinfeld" fans may remember the idea from an episode that first aired Dec. 14, 1995, "The Gum," in which Elaine, blouse open as she walks down the sidewalk, has to tread carefully past a florist shop where the owner is hosing down the sidewalk in front. From the script:
A cop stands a little further down the street. Elaine approaches him.
ELAINE: Officer. Officer, is there some reason this man has to always be using a hose? I mean, he's flooding the sidewalk. It's a waste of water. Couldn't he just use a broom?
The cop stares at Elaine's breasts the whole time she's talking.
COP: Lady, you sold me. (strides toward florist) Hey, you with the hose.
Elaine looks confused about his attitude. She glances down, and notices her blouse wide open. She quickly pulls her coat closed, to hide her embarrassment, and hurries away.
Well, Elaine solved the problem with some cleavage, at least until later in the episode, when the hose returns, but maybe the City Council could now consider a more comprehensive approach.
What would you do to save some water?
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Big Sign that New York City Council Member James Oddo has a dirty mouth
NEW YORK, Oct. 10 — The Staten Island Advance is reporting another of New York City Council Member James Oddo's episodes of entertainment. Oddo, a Republican from Staten Island, blew up at a Norwegian comedian, Pia Haraldsen, who tricked him into a prank interview about the 2008 U.S. presidential election.
See the video here on YouTube for yourself, but the lowlights begin with Haraldsen asking how Sen. Barack Obama is allowed to run for president because she suggests Obama is 1) not a citizen because he is African-American (and 2) unable to run because he is African-American. The second (better?) half of the 96-second video is Oddo's F-bomb-laced rant, first to his staff about how the Norwegian crew got time with him, and then at the crew to get the F out of his office.
Oddo reacted to the video in an interview with the Advance, whose audio is posted here. "Do I regret demonstrating a very limited vocabulary?" Oddo asked rhetorically. "I absolutely do. Am I embarrassed for my mom and my girlfriend and some of my constituents? Absolutely. But I took great offense that they were there to mock me, to mock me, to mock Sen. Obama, to mock the Clintons, and in essence really to make America. And I told them in no uncertain terms to get out. And they wanted reality television, and the reality is that you're gonna come in and waste my time and sort of goof on all of us, then you have what's coming to you. Emotionally, that was the right sentiment. Intellectually, it could have been worded better, but I've said it from day one, and I'll say it again: I'm not a terribly good politician. I'm like any other Staten Islander, and it showed."
Couple thoughts: Pia, funny concept that you had, poor execution. Probably not the best way to ingratiate yourself to the American people and a Republican politician by pandering to racist, pre-Civil War ideology for a laugh. Jimmy, right reaction, wrong words, funny nonetheless, and thanks for standing up for equality and respectful treatment of American legislators across party lines. But did you have suggest that all Staten Islanders express themselves primarily through four-letter words when angry? Some do, sure, and I know a fair number of them, but probably, on the whole, Staten Islanders don't react as such any more than other New Yorkers, Americans, or even Norwegians, I'm guessing.
See the video here on YouTube for yourself, but the lowlights begin with Haraldsen asking how Sen. Barack Obama is allowed to run for president because she suggests Obama is 1) not a citizen because he is African-American (and 2) unable to run because he is African-American. The second (better?) half of the 96-second video is Oddo's F-bomb-laced rant, first to his staff about how the Norwegian crew got time with him, and then at the crew to get the F out of his office.
Oddo reacted to the video in an interview with the Advance, whose audio is posted here. "Do I regret demonstrating a very limited vocabulary?" Oddo asked rhetorically. "I absolutely do. Am I embarrassed for my mom and my girlfriend and some of my constituents? Absolutely. But I took great offense that they were there to mock me, to mock me, to mock Sen. Obama, to mock the Clintons, and in essence really to make America. And I told them in no uncertain terms to get out. And they wanted reality television, and the reality is that you're gonna come in and waste my time and sort of goof on all of us, then you have what's coming to you. Emotionally, that was the right sentiment. Intellectually, it could have been worded better, but I've said it from day one, and I'll say it again: I'm not a terribly good politician. I'm like any other Staten Islander, and it showed."
Couple thoughts: Pia, funny concept that you had, poor execution. Probably not the best way to ingratiate yourself to the American people and a Republican politician by pandering to racist, pre-Civil War ideology for a laugh. Jimmy, right reaction, wrong words, funny nonetheless, and thanks for standing up for equality and respectful treatment of American legislators across party lines. But did you have suggest that all Staten Islanders express themselves primarily through four-letter words when angry? Some do, sure, and I know a fair number of them, but probably, on the whole, Staten Islanders don't react as such any more than other New Yorkers, Americans, or even Norwegians, I'm guessing.
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